Friday, July 01, 2005

Non BCS Top 15

In the late seventies there was so much imbalance in division one football that it was split in two. By 1981 it was complete with about 100 schools at the higher division 1A and about the same at 1aa. Over the last twenty four years about twenty plus schools have made the jump to 1a and about ten or so have dropped to 1aa or dropped football all together.

The bowl system is not the best way to determine a national championship but d1-a stuck with it, while d1-aa went with a 16 team playoff. In the eighties and early nineties 18 bowls were available and each had a chance to hold a national championship, although not equally. There was no BCS or non-BCS schools, conferences, or bowls, there was only Jan. 1 bowls and non-New Year's Day bowls.

In 1984, BYU beat an overrated, but highly ranked Pittsburgh team early and rose highly in the polls. By the end of the year the Cougars were ranked number one and were the only undefeated team in college football. If they were not contracted to play in the Holiday Bowl as the WAC champs, they probably could have faced Big 8 champ Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. 10-1 Pac 10 runner-up Washington got the bid instead, yet if the Holiday had the funds they probably could have swayed the Huskies to play BYU in San Diego for the "national championship". BYU beat a 6-5 Michigan team, and UW beat Oklahoma. Final poll was BYU 13-0 #1 and 11-1 UW #2.

That was the last time a current non-BCS school or non-Notre Dame won a national title. Since the inception of the BCS in 1998 only Utah last year has been able to play in one of the coveted BCS games. That itself was a joke as the Utes pasted the 8-3 Big East champs Pitt Panthers.

It is sad that even in 1a ball that there is still separation, BCS and non-BCS. Here is a list of fifteen schools that have the best shot at breaking into the BCS.

1. Fresno State- The Bulldog's schedule works out beautifully for them. They have a tough winable game at Oregon, then in late Nov have back to back games with Boise State and USC. If the Dogs run the table, and that is a big if(USC), there will be no denying them a BCS bowl.
2. Boise State- The Broncos rode to the BCS is a little tougher. Back to back games at Georgia and Oregon State might be to much for the Broncos to overcome. One loss will kill any chance of a BCS berth.
3. Miami of Ohio- If the Redhawks catch Ohio State sleeping in the opener, it could be smooth sailing all the way to the BCS. Ben who?
4. UAB- The Blazers have their most talented team ever in their short history. Winning at Tennessee in the opener would not be overly shocking, and even though there is not another marquee game on the schedule, if might be enough for UAB to make history.
5. BYU- Beating Boston College at home in the opener might not look like beating Miami or Florida State, but by mid-season it will be a bigger win than first anticipated if the Cougars can pull it off. Beating Notre Dame on the road, as well, always impresses voters.
6. Bowling Green- Behind Fresno State there is not a more talented non-BCS foe. Unfortunately for the Falcons outside of road games at an average Wisconsin team and Boise State, there is not a chance for BG to make a big splash.
7. Utah- The Utes are capable of blowing out everyone on their schedule, however, there is no one on the schedule. Utah's only chance on a return trip to the BCS is if the annual contest against BYU is a battle of unbeatens.
8. UTEP- The Miners have the same problem as Utah. UTEP has the talent to finish unbeaten, but UAB is the best team on their schedule.
9. Navy- What would be better than to celebrate the start of our nations 230th birthday, then to have the Middies in the BCS. 11-0 with wins over Maryland, Stanford, at Rutgers, and at Notre Dame even the BCS could not deny Navy.
10. Wyoming- Only if the Cowboys can find a way to beat Florida.
11. Toledo- Beating Fresno State and Bowling Green will not be enough.
12. Southern Mississippi- Schedule just too tough, at Alabama and NC State, ouch!
13. San Diego State- Can make some noise beating UCLA, but Ohio State will shut them up.
14. Northern Illinois- One and done in opener at Michigan.
15. Colorado State- Capable of beating Colorado or Minnesota on the road, but not both.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, you make a good argument about the non BCS teams could make it into the top 15. But Fresno State biggest hurdle is beating Boise State, if they run the ball they should take care of business. GO DOGS!!! BEAT USC!


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