Friday, October 07, 2005

Week 6 Picks

Biggest Games(ranked by significance)

1. Georgia at Tennessee- Georgia can take control of the SEC East with a win at Neyland, but it won't be easy. Georgia should play up to its competition for the first time since the big win over Boise State, but the Broncos were overrated. Close wins over South Carolina and Mississippi State are nothing to brag about either.

Tennessee's offense looked a step slow again against Ole Miss, but after the short week it could be excused. Gerald Riggs needs to carry the load for the Vols to win. Fulmer can not shuffle the quarterbacks either. Rick Clausen is becoming the leader of this team, and a big win over UGA will only solidify that.

I think defense will dominate early, and the team that can run ball effectively will have the best chance to pull out the win. UGA has a ton of backs, but none as good as Riggs. The game is in Knoxville, the home team wins 24-14.

2. Ohio State at Penn State- What a matchup. In my
preseason Big 10 preview, I called for the Penn State upset over Ohio State as the biggest of the year. I am not going to shy away from it now. Penn State did have the huge win over Minnesota, but are still not playing up to their potential. While Ohio State, despite the loss to Texas, is playing better than I thought with Troy Smith behind center.

Logically, I think I would pick the more talented Buckeyes. Emotionally, since I already predicted the upset in the preaseason, I have to stick with it. Penn State wins a close one at home, 26-24.

3. Oklahoma vs Texas- Is this the year of the Longhorn? Oklahoma is down, but is Texas ready mentally? Oklahoma showed some life last week against Kansas State, and Texas took care of Missouri after some first half struggles. On paper Texas should win by 20+, easily, but it is not outrageous to think Oklahoma will come in prepared and beat the 'Horns.

Adrian Peterson has been medically cleared to play Saturday, but if Oklahoma expects a win, Rhett Bomar needs to have the game of his life. If Texas can clear this mental hurdle, it could clear sailing until Thanksgiving weekend.

I am tempted to take Oklahoma in a huge upset, but the Sooners have showed nothing yet this year that proves they are a top 25 team. Texas, on the other hand, has been anything short of spectacular. Texas 34, Oklahoma 21.

4. Cal at UCLA- For the first time since 1944, Cal and UCLA enter their game with each other without a loss. Cal has played an easy slate to start out 5-0. UCLA's is not much better, but the Bruins have beaten Oklahoma along the way to a 4-0 record.

UCLA had trouble beating Washington last week, were the Bruins looking ahead to the Bears? Cal has yet to be tested, and at the same time have yet to be exposed. UCLA is the more talented team, and should beat their fellow UC from the north. UCLA has played well early on in the season this decade, it is late in the season where the Bruins seem to struggle. Karl Dorrell gets his biggest win as head coach, and the
BruinsNation celebrate the 31-27 win.

5. Texas Tech at Nebraska- Nebraska faces a second straight unbeaten top 25 conference foe. Texas Tech finally played a DI-A team last week in Kansas, and won 30-17. Kansas is good, but Nebraska is better. The Sea of Red will be loud and proud. The Cornhuskers will avenge last year's embarrassing 70-10 loss. Nebraska 30, Texas Tech 21.

6. Texas A&M at Colorado-
Colorado beat up on a bad Oklahoma State team last week, while A&M struggled with Baylor at home and needed overtime to pull out the win. OSU is really bad, and Baylor is better than in years past. Colorado is the favorite at home, but I still think Reggie McNeal and the Aggies could finish the season in the top 10. A&M 24, Colorado 19.

7. Oregon at Arizona State- Does Arizona State have a let down after giving up a 18 point lead to USC in the 3rd quarter? Oregon can score some points, but so can ASU. The Sun Devils should pull it out. ASU 41, UO 31.


3 Potential Upsets....

What will happen- North Carolina beats Louisville- It's a stretch, but NC has two good wins in a row at NC State and home vs Utah. Louisville blew out Florida Atlantic last week, but the Cards are still reeling from the loss at Tampa.

What might happen- Vanderbilt over LSU- Yeah, Vandy lost to MTSU, but the Commodores could have been looking ahead to this week's big home game with LSU.

What is unlikely to happen- Northwestern upsets Wisconsin- Wisconsin is on a roll at 5-0, the game in Evanston is the classic trap game.

Betting Man? Surefire Picks!

Marshall(+35.5) at Virginia Tech- the Hokie defense looked mortal last week, 35 points is a bit much versus a decent Marshall team.

Navy(-1) vs Air Force - Navy is at home and should take the game straight up.

Michigan(-7.5) vs Minnesota - With Hart, the Michigan offense has heart. Wolverines roll.


all my picks at D1AFootball.com
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