Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Bowl Predictions

With the first week of November already behind us the college bowl picture is starting to shake out. In regards to the Bowl Championship Series, Virginia Tech's upset loss at home to Miami was huge, and along with the UCLA embarrassment at Arizona, some of BCS prayers have been answered.

The BCS Bowls

  • Rose Bowl- Southern Cal vs Texas
  • Fiesta Bowl- Notre Dame vs Alabama
  • Sugar Bowl- Georgia vs West Virginia
  • Orange Bowl- Miami vs Penn State

notes: It appears USC and Texas are destined to play in Pasadena. If that holds true, then the Fiesta Bowl would have the first at-large choice. Notre Dame is the likely choice, but a 10-1 Oregon or Texas Tech would be a better geographical fit. Georgia as the projected SEC champ is slotted in the Sugar and Miami is slotted in the Orange as the ACC champ. The BCS tries to set up the most attractive matchups as possible, thus projected Big Ten champ Penn State in the Orange. A one loss Alabama team is a very attractive at-large team, but a one loss Virginia Tech team could be more enticing. I see Alabama getting the nod as the second at-large team over Virginia Tech, as long as the Tide do not lose more than one game. I wouldn't rule out an all SEC Sugar Bowl since Alabama did not play Georgia this year, but more than likely projected Big East champ West Virginia is placed in the Sugar.

Major Bowls

  • Cotton Bowl- Texas Tech vs Auburn
  • Capital One Bowl- LSU vs Wisconsin
  • Holiday Bowl- Oregon vs Colorado
  • Gator Bowl- Virginia Tech vs Louisville
  • Outback Bowl- Michigan vs Florida
  • Peach Bowl- Florida State vs South Carolina

notes: It is pretty self explanatory, no out of conference changes here.

Middle of the Road Bowls

  • Alamo Bowl- Ohio State vs Oklahoma
  • Sun Bowl- UCLA vs Northwestern
  • Liberty Bowl- Southern Miss vs Clemson
  • Insight Bowl- Arizona State vs Rutgers
  • Champs Sports Bowl- North Carolina vs Iowa State
  • Meineke Car Care Bowl- NC State vs South Florida
  • Music City Bowl- Tennessee vs Iowa
  • Independence Bowl- Missouri vs Georgia Tech

notes: The Liberty Bowl has an at-large berth, the Mountain West's TCU is an option vs the Conference USA Champ, as long as the champ is from the South and not Texas, specifically West Texas. I project S. Miss to win CUSA, but I project the Liberty will pluck one the remaining bowl eligible ACC schools left over. I project the SEC to have only 7 bowl eligible teams, and I project two will be in the BCS, thus leaving an open spot in the Independence Bowl. I project another ACC team to play in Shreveport.

Minor Bowls

  • Houston Bowl- Nebraska vs Virginia
  • Las Vegas Bowl- TCU vs Fresno State*
  • Emerald Bowl- California vs Colorado State
  • MPC Computers Bowl- Boise State vs Boston College
  • Motor City Bowl- Toledo vs Minnesota
  • GMAC Bowl- Central Florida vs Miami of Ohio*
  • Fort Worth Bowl- Kansas vs Tulsa
  • Hawaii Bowl- Oregon State vs UTEP*
  • Poinsettia Bowl- BYU vs Navy
  • New Orleans Bowl- Arkansas State vs UAB

*see below

notes: Now here is where it becomes tricky. The Houston will be short an SEC spot, not enough eligible teams, as stated above. I project another ACC team to fill the void, but hometown Houston could be an option if no BCS schools remain . The Pac Ten could have as many 7 bowl eligible teams or as little as 4, I am projecting 6. With six spots and assuming Oregon or UCLA do not make the BCS, then all Pac Ten spots would be filled. TCU is projected to have a 10-1 record and the MWC might want to shop their marquee team if the a 6-5 Pac Ten team awaits in the Las Vegas Bowl. The WAC has a similar problem with the Fresno State-Boise State winner if a 6-5 ACC team is the opponent in Boise. The Hawaii Bowl will be in fiscal trouble since the hometown Warriors will not be bowl eligible. The Fresno State-Boise State loser would probably be the WAC representative in the Hawaii, if no other bowl arrangement can be made. Navy just needs one more win to wrap up a Poinsettia Bowl bid, as the Middies are the leading candidate for the at-large spot.

*Now, the crazy bowl scenario for the week: The WAC trades its spot in the Hawaii bowl to the Pac 10 for their fifth place spot in Las Vegas. The deal will probably be contingent on CUSA sending the loser of its conference championship game to Hawaii. Which is possible, especially if the GMAC wants to invite Central Florida. I doubt Cal or Oregon State want to play the likes of UAB or Central Florida. UTEP or Southern Miss is bad enough, but tolerable considering the game will be on the Islands.

This scenario would give the Las Vegas Bowl a marquee matchup of a 10-2 Fresno State/Boise State vs a 10-1 TCU. The MWC could throw a wrench in this scenario by sending TCU to the Liberty if invited. It is still possible for the WAC to get three teams in bowl games if the Pac 10 fails to get 6 bowl eligible teams or if Oregon is given a BCS bid. In that case Nevada would go to the Hawaii Bowl and Fresno State/Boise State winner and loser would be slotted in the Las Vegas/Emerald or MPC Computers Bowls.


Blogger Jason Prothero said...

As a Beaver fan I would be pretty miffed if the Pac-10 sold out and gave up their spot in the Vegas Bowl. With bowl contracts the way they are these days I honestly don't see this scenario happening ever. There's just no prior precendent for it happening. The only way it happens is if the Pac-10 gets a better bowl not a worse one. Or if they get a ton of money from someone willing to buy them out of the bowl contract, which I doubt the WAC has.

Let's just say this is VERY hopeful on your part.

Blogger mdg said...

Hawaii Bowl will be affiliated with the Pac 10 in 2006 and beyond, thus it is as important to the Pac 10 as it is to the WAC, that the bowl on the Island stays strong finacially

The Pac 10 loses the Insight Bowl next year and the Hawaii is set to receive the Pac 10's 6th team in 06...it this bowl goes down then the Pac 10 could be stuck with only 5 tie ins unless a deal can be struck with the Poinsettia Bowl.

I do not see to much of a difference for the Pac 10's 5th or 6th place team playing the MWC in Vegas/Emerald or facing CUSA in Hawaii...aren't BCS schools supposed to beat non-BCS schools no matter what in a bowl game, just ask UCLA, regardless if say one, like TCU, is nationally ranked....face it the Frogs have not beaten anyone, Oklahoma is not the same lame team it was in September.....

....if the Emerald and Hawaii Bowls will be good enough for the Pac 10's 5th and 6th place teams next year, then why not a year earlier.....

Jason it might not even be an issue if the Beavers can not shake their on/off gameplay and beat Stanford or Oregon to get bowl eligible.

Would it have made you happier if I would have slotted your Beavers in the Emerald Bowl against a 7-4 or 6-5 MWC team because honestly the only way Oregon State goes to Las Vegas is if the Beavers win one of two and Cal loses its last two, which is still possible but not likely

and come on Oregon State started their new found resurgance under Erickson in the Oahu Bowl back in 1999 on the Island


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